Rolf Englund IntCom internetional
Wickman, Wickman, Wibble, Novemberrevolutionen och CMBS
Grova beräkningar visar att omkring två tredjedelar av bankernas kreditförluster på 1990-talet kom från fastighetssektorn. (1) Se Riksbanken (2009), ”Global recession och finansiell stabilitet”, Finansiell stabilitet 2009:1.
En ansenlig del av bankernas utlåning i dag sker till svenska fastighetsbolag, närmare bestämt runt nio procent av deras totala utlåningsstock. Även om andelen sådana lån är mindre än under 1990-talet, då var andelen cirka en tredjedel, är den fortfarande av sådan storlek att den utgör en betydande potentiell kreditrisk för de svenska storbankerna.
Dokument inifrån TV2 17/11 2004:
SOU 1985:52, Krister Wickman, ordförande
Prices in the $3.5 tn U.S. commercial real estate have fallen about 39% from the peak in mid 2007
Companies ramped up purchases in the commercial real estate during the go-go bubble years, typically executing a version of the carry trade where they exploited low short-term buildingrates to invest long, as the bubble inflated asset prices beyond recognition.
William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, highlighted this this month:
“If the availability of funding for this market is not restored, the downturn in commercial real estate valuation and the losses for the holders of these assets will be greater. This will, in turn, likely further constrain credit availability. That’s the vicious cycle we want to lean against.”
The clock is ticking with some of the $3,400bn of loans made to property developers for anything from urban office tower blocks to shopping malls across the US due for payment.
At the moment, it is near-impossible for developers to refinance these maturing commercial mortgages though the CMBS sector, which makes up 25 per cent of the real estate financing sector.
Commercial real estate market sinks
Listen to what Richard Parkus of Deutsche Bank has to say about commercial real estate.
We have often said that after the collapse of residential real estate in the last year, the next shoe to drop would be the commercial market. What is being wrung out of the home market is now beginning to be felt big time in commercial real estate. Landlords are putting together all kinds of packages, including free rent and other perks, and still prices are falling. It is believed that values are down a whopping 50% from their peak in 2007.
- The U.S. urban commercial real estate markets probably will not recover until 2017, the head analyst of commercial mortgages for Deutsche Bank Securities (DBKGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said on Monday.
"The froth is still working itself out," Richard Parkus, Deutsche Bank head of Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities and Asset-Backed Securities Synthetics Research said at the Reuters Global Real Estate Summit in New York. "We are currently in something which is comparable to what we saw in the 1990s and potentially worse."