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Moral Hazard

Rolf Englund:
- There is no such thing as rational expectations.

Warren Buffett

John McCain:
"Wall Street has betrayed us.

New figures coming out of the US economy confirms that in almost every respect it is doing significantly better than expected.
It is impressive.
Carl Bildt blog 6/12 2005

When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will get complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance
Citigroup chief executive Chuck Prince

And here

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Davos 2009

Bland oraklen på World Economic Forum i Davos i januari var det en fråga som dominerade:
Skulle bostadsbubblan i USA ta kål på högkonjunkturen?
En enda deltagare i världens mest kvalificerade panel, professor Nouriel Roubini, talade om en krasch.
De övriga förutspådde ett nästan lika soligt 2007 som 2006.
Niklas Ekdal, DN signerat 18/8 2007

On Friday I was in Davos in a panel on the "Ups and Downs of EMU" (European Monetary Union) where ECB head Trichet, Italian Economy Minister Tremont, a few other EU officials and myself were supposed to discuss the following questions:
Will EMU collapse in the future? Which country will exit first? What will be the consequences of a break-up of EMU? How to avoid that? And what are the prospects for the Growth and Stability Pact?
Nouriel Roubini, 28/1 2006

Unlike the other panelist that ignored the topic and spoke instead about all the good things allegedly associated with EMU, I took the questions seriously by considering some of the problems and risks faced by EMU and the risks of a break-up, especially for the case of Italy.

My remarks caused a stir with Minister Tremonti who interrupted me in the middle of my remarks, went into a temper tantrum and shouted - to the consternation of all participants - to me: "Go Back to Turkey!!". I happen to have been born in Istanbul; but more than offensive to myself his pathetic burst of uncivilized anger was an insult to the decent Turks who are currently trying to negotiate an agreement to enter into the EU.

Read more here

The economic crisis 2004, predicted by many, has not materialised.
Not so fast, say the economic experts at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
"The good news of 2004, the past performance is not indicative of future returns," quips
Stephen Roach, chief economist at investment bank Morgan Stanley.
Fair enough, Mr Roach is a notorious "Davos bear", well-known for his economic pessimism. Trouble is, many people here are happy to agree with him,
even his old sparring partner, the perennial optimist Jacob Frenkel, vice-chairman of insurance giant AIG.
BBC 27/1 2005

You Can Almost Hear It Pop
Stehen S. Roach, New York Times, December 16, 2007

The American economy is slipping into its second post-bubble recession in seven years.

Just as the bursting of the dot-com bubble led to a downturn in 2001 and ’02, the simultaneous popping of the housing and credit bubbles is doing the same right now.

Read more here

No economy can live beyond its means in perpetuity. Yet....the US thought it was different.
America’s current account deficit surged from 1.5% of GDP in 1995 to 6% in 2006.
Stephen Roach August 2008