Let dollar fall or risk global disorder
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I see a story driven less by a swing in global capital flows and
more by a swing in global commodity prices (and changes in the global pattern of commodity production).
Brad Setser, March 15, 2017
In a recent talk at the Council on Foreign Relations
former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers described himself as a “chastened prophet”
– a description that former Chairman of the Fed Paul Volcker also embraced.
Both warned about the risks associated with large US current account deficits several years ago.
Brad Setser May 25, 2007
I lack the stature of Summers and Volcker, but I too often feel like a “chastened prophet of doom.”
Along with Dr. Roubini, I publicly worried in 2004 that a $600b US current account deficit financed in large part by demand for US debt from the world’s central bank carried grave risks.
Yet, as Summers noted in his talk, the “balance of terror” generated a relatively stable state system during the cold war, as – at least so far - has the “balance of financial terror”.
Jonah 3:10 - 4:11
A chastened prophet, in this wonderful parable of Jonah, had preached at last God's stern message to the godless city:
"Your city will be destroyed in 40 days."
The city heard the message and wholeheartedly repented and sought God's mercy. God spared them graciously.
And the prophet was furious, burned up with anger.
Morningside Parish Church, Morningside, Edinburgh
'Prophets of doom' will be right in the end
... that might be called a market's economy
Rolf Englund, Financial Times, June 5 2007
Comment by Rolf Englund:
I lack the stature of Brad Setser but I too often feel like a “chastened prophet of doom.”
U.S. Trade Deficit: Causes, Magnitude and Consequenses dated 2001-05-21